Kuwait Times

Published Date: March 02, 2009
By Raymond Colitt

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's chief of staff and his pick to succeed him is stepping up her campaign for the 2010 race, inaugurating public works projects, rallying her party and even parading during Carnival celebrations. Dilma Rousseff, a tough-talking former left-wing guerrilla dubbed the "Iron Lady" by Brazilian media, this month received the backing of the ruling Workers' Party as its candidate next year.

But Rousseff, who trails her likely rival by nearly 30 percentage points in opinion polls, lacks the charisma and remarkable political skills that have made Lula probably Brazil's most popular president ever. While she pledges to continue Lula's center-left policies, analysts she may be more heavy-handed in running the economy than her boss, who is in his second term as president and cannot run for re-election.

She believes in big government," said Ricardo Ribeiro, analyst with MCM consulting firm in Sao Paulo. "I fear she wouldn't accept central bank independence like Lula did - financial markets won't like that." Meddling with monetary policy wouldn't go over well with banks, which racked up record earnings in recent years, partially because the central bank insists on high interest rates to tame inflation. Still, many industry leaders like Rousseff, the daughter of a Bulgarian-born lawyer and businessman, not
least because she oversees a large public works plan that benefits them. She backed recent measures to strengthen state banks and insisted state oil company Petrobras develop large oil deposits despite the current financial crisis.

Once active in urban guerrilla groups that fought Brazil's 1964-85 military dictatorship, the 61-year-old Rousseff also favors more government control over industry regulators, especially in setting utility rates. A trained economist who cut her political teeth in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, she is seen even by opposition politicians as an efficient manager. "She's a doer and knows how things work in this country, and that can only be good," said Gilmar Eldo de Andrade, mayor from Tocantins st
ate for the right-wing, opposition DEM party.

Jailed and tortured during military rule, Rousseff is persistent and centralizes decision-making, Lula aides say. "She puts her red pen to almost everything that comes through here," a senior presidential advisor told Reuters. But analysts question whether Rousseff has the skills to deal with legislators and hold together a coalition as diverse as Lula's with 11 parties.

Lula, 63, is a master in the art of politics. A former union leader, he at first terrified investors but he won them over by backing free market reforms and leading Brazil through an economic boom even as he invested heavily in social programs that helped pull millions out of poverty. He also bounced back from several corruption scandals involving close aides and in his grandfatherly way handled power struggles among allies. "Her political abilities are an unknown," said Ribeiro.

Last year the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, which then was seeking more posts in state companies, presented her with a hula hoop as a sign she needed more flexibility in dealing with the government's allies. At a recent convention of the Workers' Party, her defense of economic policies was designed to win over critics who share such doubts and still see her as an outsider who joined from another left-wing party 10 years ago.

Despite much applause at the convention, some party leaders did not sound entirely convinced of her candidacy. "We're at peace - Dilma it is. The president weighed in and she had her way," said Candido Vaccarezza, the Workers' Party leader in the Chamber of Deputies. Opinion polls show Rousseff trailing Sao Paulo's state governor, Jose Serra of the opposition Brazilian Social Democracy Party, by nearly 30 percentage points. Both expect their parties' formal nominations later this year.

The center-left Serra, 66, lost to Lula in the 2002 election but has boosted his profile and reputation since becoming Sao Paulo's state governor at the start of 2007. Rousseff's aides believe she will be helped by increased media exposure once she is confirmed as her party's candidate and the campaign gets going support. Lula will stump for her and strong support from female voters wanting the country's first woman president should help close the gap, they say.

Told by advisors to lighten up her technocrat's speaking style and look, Rousseff recently underwent facial plastic surgery, ditched her spectacles and mingled with the masses during this week's Carnival in northeastern Pernambuco, Lula's home state. But unlike Lula, who is often greeted like a rock star all over the country, Rousseff still appears stiff and has a hard time connecting with her audience.

Fortunately for Rousseff, her likely rival Serra is also seen by many as a wooden bureaucrat. "She doesn't have Lula's style or ability and never won a vote in her life," said Brasilia-based political consultant Carlos Lopes. "But if the economy bounces back, the support of the president and the government apparatus can make her a strong candidate in 2010." - Reuters