Kuwait Times

Published Date: July 26, 2010

HAVANA: It would be easy for Raul Castro to make headlines in a major Revolution Day speech Monday. All he has to do is bring up the 52 political prisoners he has agreed to release, or discuss plans to open the island's communist economy.

Of course, nothing Cuba's 79-year-old president says will mean as much as whether elder brother Fidel is standing by his side. A recent spate of appearances by the revolutionary leader after four years of near-total seclusion has got everybody talking. Could this be Fidel's coming out party?

If Fidel is there it will cause a huge stir. It will be very important," said Wayne Smith, a former top American diplomat in Havana and senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for International Policy. He said the elder Castro brother's presence would make clear to many in Washington that the 83-year old revolutionary still has a strong hand in affairs of state. That, Smith says, would not be viewed positively by those waiting for Cuba to allow more economic, political and social changes.

The thought has been that they are moving toward reforms under Raul, but that they might be moving more energetically if not for the fact that Fidel Castro is still sitting on the porch and Raul is afraid he might not be enthusiastic," Smith said. "If Fidel does come back, that could suggest they aren't going to move as fast as they should with these changes." Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a close friend and admirer of the Castros whose country provides Cuba billions of dollars a year in subsidized oi
l, is also expected to speak today.

Fidel Castro ruled Cuba for nearly half a century until he was forced to step down in 2006 and undergo emergency intestinal surgery, turning power over -- first temporarily, then permanently -- to his brother. Since then, Castro has lived in near total seclusion. Until this month, that is.

The former president has seemingly been everywhere, most recently making an emotional visit Saturday to a town outside Havana to honor fallen revolutionary fighters. There he read a statement that was right out of his much-weathered revolutionary playbook, turning Cuba's tortured half-century conflict with the United States into a positive.

The simple fact of maintaining this fight for such a long time provides proof of what a small country can achieve against a gigantic, imperial power," Castro said after laying a wreath at a mausoleum for his comrades. In other appearances Castro has visited economists, scientists, diplomats and even dolphins at the national aquarium, his every move captured on national television and in state-run newspapers.

State media have even taken to calling him "commander in chief" again, a title he has largely shunned since stepping down. Fidel Castro has used the publicity spree to warn that the world stands on the precipice of a nuclear war -- pitting the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other.

So far he has stayed clear of commenting on current events in Cuba, perhaps in an effort to avoid the appearance of interfering with his brother's work running the country. But merely attending Revolution Day celebrations would be an overtly political act.

While Raul Castro has remained loyal to his brother's communist ideals, he has overseen the handover of tens of thousands of acres of government land to individual farmers; has allowed some small-level entrepreneurship in a country where the state controls well over 90 percent of the economy; and has spearheaded an anti-corruption drive in which several senior officials were fired.

He has also tried to scale back unsustainable subsidies in a system where most people earn low government wages but receive free health care and education, near-free housing and transportation and deeply discounted basic food. The reforms -- while halting -- have allowed Raul to emerge from the shadow of his more famous brother, though opinion is divided on how much influence Fidel wields behind the scenes.

The government has said nothing about whether Fidel will be on hand for Monday's celebration, which commemorates the date in 1953 when the Castros led an attack on the Moncada army barracks in the eastern city of Santiago and a smaller military outpost in the nearby city of Bayamo. The operation failed spectacularly, but Cubans consider it the beginning of the revolution that culminated with dictator Fulgencio Batista's ouster on New Year's Day 1959. Cuba celebrates Revolution Day in a different part of t
he island each year.

The 2010 affair in the central city of Santa Clara offers an intriguing backdrop. The speeches will be held at a towering outdoor memorial housing the remains of Argentine revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara. Santa Clara is also home to Guillermo Farinas, a dissident who recently ended a 134-day hunger strike after the government agreed to release the last remaining opposition leaders jailed since 2003. At least 15 have been released and sent to Spain so far, with the rest expected to follow in coming mon
ths.

While many think Fidel Castro's appearance Saturday means it's less likely he will also show up in Santa Clara, there have been some signs he might attend. When Chavez announced that he would be attending the festivities, he wrote that he wanted to share the day "with Raul, with Fidel and with the Cuban people." On the streets of Havana, many believe the former leader will make an appearance.

I think Fidel has to be in Santa Clara," said Mariana Delgado, a 71-year-old retiree standing in line to buy a copy of state-run newspaper Juventud Rebelde, or "Rebel Youth." "The people are waiting to see him at a public event, and we are waiting to hear him speak about the situation in Cuba," she said. "Until now, he has only talked about problems in other countries. We have many problems here that we need to solve." -- AP