Kuwait Times

Neither side in Africa's oldest territorial dispute appears ready to compromise in talks starting this month over Western Sahara and break a deadlock blocking a brighter economic future for the Maghreb. Morocco and independence movement Polisario have agreed to a meeting near New York on June 18-19 but disagree on key matters including exactly what the talks should cover, analysts say. Morocco, with quiet support from France, Spain and some US officials, says the discussions should be limited to how to provide self-rule for the territory under Moroccan sovereignty.

But Polisario, backed by many African countries including heavyweights South Africa and Algeria, says negotiations should be about how to hold a referendum among Sahrawis on self-determination. "The likelihood of either side making a fundamental concession - just to get talks started - is nil," wrote Jacob Mundy, a Western Sahara specialist at Britain's University of Exeter. "An honest appraisal of the situation reveals that the parties' thinking is still war-like; neither Morocco nor Polisario yet believes that total victory is impossible."

The dispute, a pillar of Moroccan-Algerian rivalry, is a big barrier to commerce across the Maghreb region of 80 million people stretching from Mauritania to Libya and makes it unlikely the region will achieve its goal of a free trade area by 2010. The first direct official talks for years between Morocco and Polisario are intended as a first step in negotiating a settlement of the status of the former Spanish colony of 260,000 people, annexed by Morocco after Madrid pulled out in 1975.

Morocco's move set off a guerrilla war with the Polisario. A UN ceasefire agreement in 1991 promised a referendum on the fate of the territory, but it never took place and Rabat now rules it out, saying autonomy is the most it will offer. No country recognises Moroccan rule over the territory, which has phosphates, fisheries and potentially oil, but Rabat is confident its traditional role as the West's main ally in north Africa gives it the diplomatic edge. "Morocco feels they have more support than the Polisario and want the negotiations to extend the momentum of that support," a senior European diplomat said. "Rabat sees the diplomatic balance ticking over nicely to its side with Spain standing closer to Morocco than Polisario. The US is joining France's support of Rabat," he said.

Rabat's plan would offer elections to a regional parliament which would choose a head of government and cabinet. But Rabat would keep control of national security, defence, foreign relations, the currency and the "Kingdom's juridical order". Polisario has ample support in Africa, where many countries tend to see Western Sahara as the continent's last colony. An estimated 158,800 Sahrawi refugees are living in camps in the Algerian desert where malnutrition is widespread.

The movement wants to negotiate with Morocco on ways to hold a referendum that would offer a choice between independence, integration into Morocco and self-governance. Both sides say they are now ready to talk in good faith, raising some hope of progress: The peace process has stagnated since UN envoy James Baker left in 2004 after a referendum plan he proposed came to nothing. But analysts say that in reality neither side seems in the mood to do a deal. "Morocco and Polisario have conflicting views and expectations from the negotiations," said Nadir el Moumni, a political analyst in Rabat.

Rabat wanted a consensus on a solution that emerges from within its autonomy proposal, while Polisario wants the negotiations to be crowned by a referendum on self-determination that it is sure would bring about independence, he said. "If each side insists on its fundamental demands from the beginning, the negotiations will bear no fruit, and if the talks were to continue in such a context it is because no party wants to be the first to get blamed by the international community for their failure," he added.

Independence would be seen as an unpardonable climbdown for many in Morocco, where the "Green March" of 1975 is commemorated with a public holiday. An image of the marchers adorns bank notes, topped by a dove with a copy of the Koran in its beak. Anything less than independence could aggravate a two-year-old wave of unrest in the territory that Polisario says has shaken Moroccan confidence in its control. Polisario leader Mohamed Abdelaziz told Reuters on June 1 that failure to break the deadlock could destabilise north Africa and reignite Polisario's armed struggle. "A cloud of frustration is covering the region," he said. - Reuters