Kuwait Times

Published Date: February 08, 2010

Just weeks ago, it seemed inconceivable the Republicans might win control of Congress this November. But not anymore. A Republican takeover of Congress remains a long shot. But strategists in both parties now see at least narrow paths by which the Republicans could win the House of Representatives and, if the troubled environment for Democrats deteriorates further, possibly even the Senate. With nine months to go, 2010 is shaping up in one sense to be a traditional midterm election for a new president: Th
e out-of-power party is poised to gain seats in both houses.

The question now is whether it will be a historic election with Republicans actually seizing power in Congress. The Republicans would have to gain 40 seats in the 435-member House, 10 in the 100-member Senate - a tall order no matter how upset voters are. To understand why incumbents are nervous, look no further than the persistent 10 percent unemployment rate, the country's bitterness over Wall Street bailouts and voters' anti-Washington fervor.

Obama's party, controlling both the White House and Congress, is likely to feel that fury the most. And it is defending far more seats than the Republicans. The Democrats already have faced one monumental setback this year, the Republican Senate victory in the Democratic bastion of Massachusetts. That outcome further energized Republicans and demoralized Democrats.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats hold a 256-178 advantage with one vacancy. But 49 Democrats are in districts that Republican presidential candidate John McCain won in 2008. And many are freshmen who rode into power on Obama's coattails in an election that saw a voting surge by minorities and youths. Obama will not be on the ballot this time, and he has a poor track record so far when it comes to turning out his 2008 backers for fellow Democrats.

Almost by the day, Republicans are sensing fresh opportunities to pick up ground. On Wednesday, former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats announced he would try to reclaim his old seat from Democrat Evan Bayh, who barely a year ago had been a finalist to be Barack Obama's vice presidential running mate. Republicans nationwide still are celebrating Scott Brown's January upset to take the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's former seat in Massachusetts.

Democrats have got their hands full trying to navigate through unprecedented economic turmoil and two wars," says Democratic former Sen. Bob Kerrey. He suggests the gloomy talk within the party is overstated and the Democrats are still likely to retain control, but he adds: "There's no question that there's anger out there." In the Senate, two Democratic seats are all but gone. North Dakota's Byron Dorgan is retiring, and the Democrats do not have anyone to challenge the Republican, Gov John Hoeven. Demo
crats also failed to recruit their top candidate in Delaware. Vice President Joe Biden's son eschewed a run against Republican Mike Castle. New Castle County executive Chris Coons, a Democrat, got in the race Wednesday but he is expected to face an uphill battle.

For a Republican takeover, incumbent Democrats also would have to lose in Colorado, where appointed Sen. Michael Bennet has not run statewide and faces a primary; Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is unpopular but has a hefty bank account; Arkansas, where Sen. Blanche Lincoln suffers from representing a Republican-leaning state; Pennsylvania, where party-switching Sen Arlen Specter is extraordinarily vulnerable, and Illinois, where a dogfight is certain for Obama's old seat.

Republicans would have to hold on to all the Senate seats they have now, hardly a sure thing. And the party also would have to beat incumbents in New York, where no Republican has emerged to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and Connecticut, where Democrat Richard Blumenthal is comfortably leading all Republican contenders in polls.

If all that somehow should happen, the tipping point could be either in Indiana or in California. "Every state is now in play," California Sen. Barbara Boxer said one day after the Massachusetts election. It was a frank recognition that no Democrat is safe - not even a three-term liberal with bunches of money in a solidly Democratic state.

Not coincidentally, when Obama had a televised question-and-answer session with Democrats on Wednesday, the senators given prominent face time included Boxer, Reid, Bayh, Bennet, Lincoln, Gillibrand and Specter. House Republicans have their own challenges. In more than 50 districts, divisive Republican primaries are certain to drain bank accounts and force Republicans into taking positions that could be troublesome come the general election. In many cases, "tea party" candidates are running to the right
of establishment-endorsed Republicans, casting them as too moderate for the party and too cozy with Washington. The "tea party" movement began as a conservative reaction to what its members consider profligate spending in Washington.

In other races, Republican candidates are dropping out to run as third-party candidates who could siphon votes from the eventual Republican nominee. Indeed, Republicans dramatically trail Democrats in fundraising. They also lack a charismatic leader to rally around and are enmeshed in a bitter debate over their party's future. And, like their Democratic counterparts, Republican incumbents face an electorate inclined to topple lawmakers of all political stripes. - AP