Kuwait Times

Published Date: April 12, 2009
By Matt Siegel

Turkmenistan's rebuke of Russia over a pipeline explosion this week reflects the Central Asian state's unease over Moscow's reliability but is unlikely to spark a new "gas war," analysts said. In an unusual step for the secretive ex-Soviet state, Ashgabat publicly blasted energy-giant Gazprom for an explosion on the Central Asia-Centre supply network that caused the interruption of Turkmen gas supplies to Russia.

Turkmenistan's foreign ministry said the explosion, which Gazprom promised would not affect the supply of gas to its European customers, was caused when the company abruptly cut its intake of natural gas without warning. "This accident happened due to a unilateral and egregious violation by Russian company Gazprom Export of agreements and rules of natural gas purchases," they said.

Russia sought to play down the incident on Friday, urging calm in an attempt to defuse both the harsh rhetoric of the Turkmen side and the increasing chorus of media voices in Russia and abroad declaring yet another gas crisis. "We are expecting that all controversial issues related to the accident at a pipeline in Turkmenistan will be settled between Gazprom and the Turkmen side," foreign ministry spokesman Igor Lyakin-Frolov said.

But the comments from Ashgabat, coupled with the failure last month to sign a widely-expected energy deal, highlight Turkmen concerns over the Kremlin's financial woes, said Paul Quinn-Judge, Bishek-based analyst for the International Crisis Group. "There have been very strong hints that the Turkmen don't seem to be viewing Russia right now as a reliable partner," he said. "They're not quite sure the Russians can put the money where their mouth is and they seem to be hinting that the Russians really are no
t thinking things through in this period of financial crisis.

Turkmenistan lies between the Caspian Sea, Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and is believed to have huge gas reserves beneath its mainly desert territory. Dominated for nearly two decades by mercurial dictator Saparmurat Niyazov - or Turkmenbashi as he preferred to be called - Turkmenistan's energy reserves languished mostly unexplored.

But while the financial crisis buffeting Russia's once booming commodity-based economy may be narrowing its clout, Turkmenistan finds itself with more options than ever, and more suitors than ever too. As Berdymukhamedov has begun opening the country up to foreign investment and exploration, Europe's emissaries have flocked to the futuristic capital Ashgabat, in a attempt to diversify energy supplies away from the Kremlin.

Turkmenistan's bitter rhetoric may be a way of telling Russia that it is aware that its bargaining position is stronger than ever before, said Valeriy Nesterov, a Moscow-based analyst for Troika Dialog. "It could be a kind of pressure, a way to receive compensations. It could also be a signal that Turkmen authorities are ready to examine gas exports to Europe, not only through Russia," he said.

Turkmenistan, still one of the world's most reclusive states, has welcomed the overtures from Europe, which included an invitation for a state visit last month from French President Nicolas Sarkozy. In addition to the European Union, China and the United States are seeking Turkmen energy supplies. But some analysts warned that Turkmenistan may be getting ahead of itself.

Moscow has a virtual monopoly on Turkmen gas exports, buying some 50 billion cubic metres per annum which it then sells to its customers in Europe. So while Ashgabat may grumble about seeking new partners and diversification, it really has no realistic short term prospects said Steven Dachevski, a Moscow-based analyst for Aton Capital. "Turkmenistan can think about it but they cannot be really serious. For the moment there is no other option for trends of Turkmen gas in commercial volumes," he said. - AFP