Kuwait Times

Published Date: August 07, 2008
By Edmund Blair

An Iranian official outlined the script in June. Iran would not give a 'yes' or 'no' answer but would send a "discussable response" to an offer by world powers to end a dispute over its nuclear ambitions. That script has been followed to the letter, to the frustration of the West, which has written its own plot for the diplomatic theatre being played out - more UN sanctions if Iran does not halt atomic work they fear is to make bombs.

But from now on, the drama may unfold in slow motion. A Western diplomat said the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany agreed after meeting Iran's chief nuclear negotiator in Geneva on July 19 that any answer on the incentives offer other than a clear 'yes' would be taken as a 'no'. European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, representing the six, had offered a freeze-for-freeze idea - no more UN sanctions in return for no more Iranian centrifuges - to tempt Tehran into formal t
alks. Iran did not say 'yes'.

But steps on the next round of UN sanctions are unlikely to start till September and will have to get past Russia and China which have watered down the three resolutions since 2006. Even if Tehran continues building its uranium enrichment capacity at full speed - which it insists is for peaceful electricity generation - it could take many months to have another sanctions resolution adopted, some diplomats said. The EU has taken five months to implement the last one in EU law.

Israel, the country which says it has most to fear from a nuclear Iran, is showing signs of growing impatience. "(Iranian leaders) are engaged in delaying tactics," said one Iranian analyst. "It is a dangerous game they are playing." Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, a former general who is campaigning to become head of his party and prime minister, has said war with Iran could be "unavoidable". Other Israelis have said strikes are an option.

Experts say Israel, widely assumed to be the Middle East's sole atomic power, may not be able to knock out all Iran's dispersed nuclear sites, but that this may not stop it trying. "One thing I know about the US-Israeli relationship is the Israelis don't ask for permission to do things," a senior Western diplomat in Iran said of the chance of Israeli strikes. An EU official said Europeans had hoped Iran might accept a freeze to "give them insurance against getting bombed" before the departure of President
George W Bush, who has not ruled out military action. It might also have tied a successor into talks.

Spurning that chance may reflect Iran's confidence that the risk of a US attack under Bush is slight. Iranian commanders often say Israel would not dare launch raids. If attacked, Iran warns of reprisals against Israel, US targets and Gulf oil shipping lanes - an escalation that would likely send crude prices up beyond record levels hit last month of $147 a barrel. But the immediate aim may be simpler. "What the Iranians ideally would like is just to wait until Bush goes," said Ali Ansari of Britain's St
Andrews University. Iran may also hope for a Barack Obama victory, bringing his promises of more engagement. But analysts say officials have watched warily as Obama's tone has toughened with the campaign.

Flush with cash from windfall oil revenues, Iran says it can cope with more sanctions, a view analysts share in the short term, although they see long-term damage from growing isolation. "When people say sanctions are not biting, it's simply not true. The scope is very limited but if you add that to US unilateral sanctions and the measures decided by the EU ... it is not without effect," said a European diplomat in Iran.

Iranian executives complain about difficulties trading as US and UN sanctions hit Iranian commercial banks. A new push by Britain, France and the United States to target the central bank, with its cash pile, may make life harder still. Iran is increasingly looking for partners in energy-hungry Asia. With the world's second biggest reserves of oil and gas, it is discussing new energy deals with China and Russia, in what some see as a bid to split them from the Western powers.

Some analysts, however, say not everyone seems happy in Iran's establishment, which puts Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the top of decision-making, but surrounded by a complex array of power centres and influential politicians. "There is a debate inside the regime. Some people here understand we are very serious and it is beginning to bite," the European diplomat said. How deep that debate actually goes, however, is a question not easily answered. Khamenei tends to prefer decisions taken by conse
nsus, analysts say, which can be a recipe for sclerosis. So Tehran's "flirt, play and distort" tactics - as the Iranian analyst put it - seem likely to endure. - Reuters