Kuwait Times

Published Date: November 15, 2009
By Philip Blenkinsop

Belgium risks a return to political deadlock and heightened tensions between French- and Dutch-speakers if Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy becomes president of the European Union. Van Rompuy, the frontrunner for the EU post, has helped calm the linguistically divided country since taking charge last December after 18 months of turmoil under predecessor and fellow Christian Democrat Yves Leterme.

Political analysts say the Christian Democrats would have the responsibility for choosing a new premier if Van Rompuy goes, and would be likely to opt again for Leterme. French-speakers in Belgium, a country of 10.6 million people, have expressed dismay at the potential return of a man who struggled for a record nine months to form a government that finally sank just before Christmas 2008.

Francophone newspaper Le Soir said on Saturday that Van Rompuy should leave the government only if he were replaced by someone his equal, and urged the Flemish Christian Democrats not to choose Leterme. "Tried already, didn't work," the paper said. Leterme's term as premier prompted media speculation about the country breaking up, led central bank governor Guy Quaden to warn of an extra budget deficit from the stalemate and made investors attach a risk premium to the country's debt.

It is very important now not to lose time taking economic decisions," said Philippe Ledent, economist at ING. "We have a very big deficit and budgetary efforts to make in 2010. If we enter a period of several months on issues secondary for the economy, it could impact the future performance of Belgium." The government has forecast a budget deficit of 5.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2010. During the 2007 government crisis, economists estimated that political risk added as much as 10 basis points t
o the risk premium of Belgian 10-year bonds over German bunds. The spread is currently around 37 points.

Replacing a prime minister is more complex in Belgium than just replacing any other cabinet member because it entails the resignation of the entire government. It could lead to debate about all cabinet posts and policy. Any Belgian premier will need to find a consensus on the further powers that can be devolved to the regions - Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north and French-speaking Wallonia in the south - and on a redrawing of political boundaries around the capital Brussels.

The latter is a thorny problem that Belgium's top court says must be solved before the next federal election. That gives the government in theory until mid-2011, but in reality it will want divisive debate to end before Belgium takes on the six-month rotating presidency of the EU in the second half of next year. "If Leterme takes charge there will be moments of crisis over state reform, but Van Rompuy would have had to face them too," said Ghent University political scientist Carl Devos. "Van Rompuy has mo
re trust among French-speakers, but it's not a simple difference between black and white.

Leterme pledged in the 2007 election to deliver more power to Belgium's regions, against the wishes of French-speakers who fear such a move would pull Belgium apart. He had already upset them with a comment that they were either too lazy or not intelligent enough to learn Dutch. The Flemish Christian Democrats could opt instead for Steven Vanackere, their leading minister in the cabinet, or seek to tempt back Jean-Luc Dehaene, prime minister from 1992-1999 and now chairman of Franco-Belgian bank Dexia. But
the question remains: would they want the job? "The post is not a gift for anyone. Even for Leterme the risk is very big. It would be safer not to do it," said Kris Deschouwer, political scientist at Brussels' Free University. - Reuters