Kuwait Times

Published Date: August 17, 2008
By Oleg Shchedrov

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev marked 100 days in the Kremlin on Thursday still trying to establish his leadership amid a dizzying array of challenges, ranging from war with Georgia to scared investors selling out. Medvedev inherited from his predecessor and mentor Vladimir Putin an awkward legacy: a confident, economically booming country haunted by a strong centralisation of power in the Kremlin, the weak rule of law and rampant corruption.

The 42-year-old former lawyer has no experience in political leadership and little charisma, which led to widespread assumptions he would be a junior partner in tandem with Putin, now prime minister and still Russia's most popular politician. An opinion poll conducted by the Levada Centre in mid-July showed only 9 percent of Russians believed Medvedev was calling the shots. Some 47 percent thought they were ruling together, while 36 percent believed Putin was still in charge.

The crisis over Georgia's pro-Russian separatist region of South Ossetia provided a test of who was in charge. Moscow sent a large force of troops, planes and warships to repel a Georgian attempt to retake the province, driving Tbilisi's forces back. Putin initially dominated television screens, cutting short a visit to the Beijing Olympics to fly back and visit hospitals packed with refugees, attend major official events and make statements ahead of the president.

Putin's strong public play is no surprise," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the magazine Russia in Global Politics. "In the eyes of many Russians, he is a man of war closely associated with security issues." Putin is a former KGB agent who spent most of his presidency fighting a rebel insurgency in the Muslim province of Chechnya. But it was Medvedev who delivered to the nation the tough news of a new military campaign on Friday and it was he who told the troops to cease fire on Tuesday. He and Putin held
crucial talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, opening the way for European mediation in the conflict.

The situation in South Ossetia has shown the balance of forces," said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Centre of Political Information, a Moscow think-tank. "Putin maintains a leading role, but Medvedev is slowly approaching him." The South Ossetia crisis and other recent events have clearly demonstrated that Putin and Medvedev share an assertive approach to foreign policy, which has irked the West.

In the first 100 days of his rule, Medvedev upset hopes that he might show a softer position in a series of diplomatic clashes, ranging from Iran's nuclear programme to US plans to deploy a missile defence system in central Europe. But while the Putin-Medvedev tandem has worked smoothly on foreign policy, splits have emerged on domestic issues. Medvedev came to power on promises to establish the rule of law and make the economy more flexible - a cherished dream of Russia's business community, who resent th
e Kremlin's growing involvement in the economy and increasingly amounts of red tape.

His first pledges included a campaign to fight corruption, a promise to free small businesses from petty bureaucracy and plans to reform the judicial system to give Russia fair courts. Those ideas suffered a severe setback last month, when Putin lashed out at Russian coal and steel firm Mechel for its pricing policy, sending its shares diving on the New York Stock Exchange.

Putin's remark revived fears of 2003, when a Kremlin-inspired attack on oil major YUKOS destroyed one of the most successful Russian companies, imprisoned its founder and CEO and cowed the country's powerful business oligarchs. Scared investors started withdrawing cash from Russia, driving down its stock markets. Medvedev stepped in, telling officials to "stop terrifying business" and scaling down the Mechel affair to the level of a legal tug-of-war, despite further tough remarks by Putin.

One can hardly imagine Medvedev venturing an outright U-turn in policy," magazine editor Lukyanov said. "But he has clearly taken the wheel and is trying to steer it stronger than one might think he would." Medvedev faces key tests in coming weeks. A bitter row between the Russian and British co-owners of the country's number three oil company, TNK-BP, and the fate of jailed ex-YUKOS boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who comes eligible for parole this month, will give clues about his intentions.

Analysts say the jury is still out on whether Medvedev, who has no power base of his own, can become a true leader in a Russian political world dominated by "siloviki", officials close to security and law enforcement agencies who control the country through informal personal ties. To do this, they say, he has to change the rules of the game. Fighting corruption, reforming the courts and courting regional elites suppressed under Putin could provide a way.

Medvedev has created his anti-corruption council, which could turn into a powerful tool, and set the ball running in reforming the judicial system," Mukhin said. "It is also not by chance that under him the talk about restoring the system of electing regional governors, rather than appointing them from the Kremlin, has resumed," he added. - Reuters